These are the 10 names I am backing for the week of September 28, 2026, and below each one I show my work: the momentum, the technicals, the sentiment, the fundamentals, and the macro I am leaning on. I do not ask you to take the picks on faith — I ask you to read the evidence and disagree if you can. The pillar weights and a few model internals stay redacted because they are the edge; everything that can be shown, is.
Macro environment
Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 14.2 — barely 0.90% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.36, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.80 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is +0.2%, the trend I am actually trading against.
Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:
$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$
Source: fred · as of 2026-09-27
How I make the call
I score every candidate from 0–100 on several independent pillars,
then collapse them into one composite. The weighting is the part I keep back,
but the structure is simple:
$$\text{Composite}(x) \;=\; \sum_i w_i \, S_i(x)$$
where \(S_i\) is a pillar score and \(w_i\) its weight. The exact pillar
weights are mine to keep, so they are withheld; what I will tell you is
that a neutral-pillar guard drops any pillar sitting at 50 (no signal) and
renormalises the rest, so a silent factor never dilutes a loud one.
For the expected weekly return I do not trust a raw historical average at a
given score — small samples lie. I shrink it toward a prior, blending the
realised returns of past names that scored nearby with that prior in proportion
to how much evidence I actually have:
$$\hat{r}(s) \;=\; \frac{n\,\bar r_{\text{near}} + k\,\pi(s)}{n + k}$$
Here \(k\) (the shrinkage strength) and the prior \(\pi\) take proprietary
values , and they are exactly what I re-estimate as new weeks land —
this is where the framework learns. The standard indicator formulas below I
show in full, because none of that is the edge.
Indicator formula reference
RSI: $$\mathrm{RSI}_{14}=100-\frac{100}{1+RS},\quad RS=\frac{\overline{\text{gain}}_{14}}{\overline{\text{loss}}_{14}}$$
MACD: $$\mathrm{MACD}=\mathrm{EMA}_{12}-\mathrm{EMA}_{26},\quad \text{signal}=\mathrm{EMA}_9(\mathrm{MACD})$$
ATR: $$\mathrm{ATR}_{14}=\tfrac{1}{14}\sum TR,\quad TR=\max\big(H-L,\,|H-C_{-1}|,\,|L-C_{-1}|\big)$$
Bollinger: $$\mathrm{BB}=\mathrm{SMA}_{20}\pm 2\,\sigma_{20}$$
Cross-sectional z: $$z=\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}$$
The picks
#1 SMCI
SMCI
Technology
Composite 73.0 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 53.6 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 69.2 | |
| Technical | 66.5 | |
| Fundamental | 63.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 73.0 | — |
| Universe percentile | 99 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 11.7 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 1.31 |
P/S | 0.67 |
| ROE | 25.1 |
ROA | 9.3 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 77.8 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 94.1 |
SMCI selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 73.0/100
#2 TWLO
TWLO
Technology
Composite 72.1 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 58.0 | |
| Catalyst | 80.0 | |
| Sentiment | 58.2 | |
| Technical | 83.3 | |
| Fundamental | 65.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 72.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 96 | |
Technicals (2026-09-25)
| RSI(14) | 62.5 |
ADX(14) | 28.8 |
| MACD | 15.523 |
Signal | 10.380 |
| MACD hist | 5.144 |
ATR(14) | 12.90 |
| SMA 20 | 246.67 |
SMA 50 | 227.38 |
| SMA 200 | 172.10 |
Vol ratio | 1.92 |
| Boll upper | 292.00 |
Boll lower | 201.35 |
| CCI(20) | 135.0 |
MFI(14) | 70.8 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 1251.9 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 2.76 |
P/S | 8.36 |
| ROE | 14.2 |
ROA | 11.5 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 17.8 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 5800.2 |
TWLO selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 72.1/100
#3 SEI
SEI
Energy
Composite 60.9 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 52.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 72.0 | |
| Technical | 64.7 | |
| Fundamental | 63.3 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 60.9 | — |
| Universe percentile | 94 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.0 |
ROA | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
Rev growth | 1.0 |
| Debt/Equity | 1.78 |
EPS growth | 5.7 |
SEI selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 60.9/100
#4 XXI
XXI
Financial Services
Composite 69.0 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 49.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 65.1 | |
| Technical | 74.4 | |
| Fundamental | 36.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 69.0 | — |
| Universe percentile | 89 | |
Technicals (2026-09-25)
| RSI(14) | 61.5 |
ADX(14) | 26.3 |
| MACD | 0.290 |
Signal | 0.202 |
| MACD hist | 0.088 |
ATR(14) | 0.38 |
| SMA 20 | 6.00 |
SMA 50 | 5.42 |
| SMA 200 | 6.89 |
Vol ratio | 0.80 |
| Boll upper | 6.98 |
Boll lower | 5.03 |
| CCI(20) | 98.9 |
MFI(14) | 59.5 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | n/a |
ROA | n/a |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | n/a |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
XXI selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 69.0/100
#5 AMC
AMC
Media
Composite 63.0 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 46.0 | |
| Catalyst | 74.0 | |
| Sentiment | 73.1 | |
| Technical | 70.3 | |
| Fundamental | 52.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 63.0 | — |
| Universe percentile | 79 | |
Technicals (2026-09-25)
| RSI(14) | 63.0 |
ADX(14) | 24.6 |
| MACD | 0.104 |
Signal | 0.070 |
| MACD hist | 0.035 |
ATR(14) | 0.16 |
| SMA 20 | 2.66 |
SMA 50 | 2.58 |
| SMA 200 | 1.82 |
Vol ratio | 0.67 |
| Boll upper | 2.99 |
Boll lower | 2.32 |
| CCI(20) | 130.9 |
MFI(14) | 60.4 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 0.62 |
P/S | 0.54 |
| ROE | -11.9 |
ROA | -7.0 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 6.4 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
AMC selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 63.0/100
#6 GME
GME
Retail
Composite 56.8 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 56.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 58.8 | |
| Technical | 74.8 | |
| Fundamental | 67.8 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 56.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 76 | |
Technicals (2026-09-25)
| RSI(14) | 65.1 |
ADX(14) | 46.7 |
| MACD | 1.263 |
Signal | 0.876 |
| MACD hist | 0.387 |
ATR(14) | 0.86 |
| SMA 20 | 21.13 |
SMA 50 | 20.27 |
| SMA 200 | 22.21 |
Vol ratio | 1.52 |
| Boll upper | 25.37 |
Boll lower | 16.89 |
| CCI(20) | 98.0 |
MFI(14) | 81.5 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.1 |
ROA | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
Rev growth | -0.1 |
| Debt/Equity | 0.00 |
EPS growth | 1.3 |
GME selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 56.8/100
#7 CLS
CLS
Electrical Equipment
Composite 61.9 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 56.0 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 57.5 | |
| Technical | 64.7 | |
| Fundamental | 63.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 61.9 | — |
| Universe percentile | 69 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 56.6 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 15.05 |
P/S | 3.80 |
| ROE | 50.6 |
ROA | 14.0 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 47.3 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 109.1 |
CLS selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 61.9/100
#8 AMRX
AMRX
Pharmaceuticals
Composite 55.6 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 45.4 | |
| Catalyst | 80.0 | |
| Sentiment | 53.7 | |
| Technical | 62.9 | |
| Fundamental | 56.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 55.6 | — |
| Universe percentile | 61 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 87.6 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 140.74 |
P/S | 2.09 |
| ROE | 174.6 |
ROA | 4.3 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 9.3 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 7506.4 |
AMRX selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 55.6/100
#9 TEM
TEM
Life Sciences Tools & Services
Composite 44.1 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 65.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 61.1 | |
| Technical | 67.4 | |
| Fundamental | 37.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 44.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 59 | |
Technicals (2026-09-25)
| RSI(14) | 75.0 |
ADX(14) | 46.1 |
| MACD | 7.142 |
Signal | 5.702 |
| MACD hist | 1.440 |
ATR(14) | 4.57 |
| SMA 20 | 69.14 |
SMA 50 | 57.94 |
| SMA 200 | 56.54 |
Vol ratio | 1.49 |
| Boll upper | 85.75 |
Boll lower | 52.52 |
| CCI(20) | 135.7 |
MFI(14) | 61.8 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 21.38 |
P/S | 12.06 |
| ROE | -54.7 |
ROA | -11.2 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 50.4 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
TEM selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 44.1/100
#10 ANET
ANET
Communications
Composite 51.2 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 44.0 | |
| Catalyst | 74.0 | |
| Sentiment | 65.8 | |
| Technical | 61.1 | |
| Fundamental | 65.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 51.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 49 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 74.2 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 13.34 |
P/S | 28.93 |
| ROE | 30.8 |
ROA | 19.5 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 32.6 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 24.7 |
ANET selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 51.2/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.
