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Execution · Buys

Trade Execution — Buys PAPER TRADING

9 positions opened · week of September 21, 2026
Redacted — proprietary method withheld. The space is kept so you can see where detail exists.

Execution summary

I filled 9 market orders at Monday's open for the week of September 21, 2026. I show the ATR-scaled stop and the conviction I carried in; the position weightings stay proprietary.

TickerFillSharesValue $StopCompositeExp. return
SMTC176.6843.11377617.16GTC ATR stop65.2
NTSK18.14419.52657610.21GTC ATR stop69.1
PURR13.73551.27097568.95GTC ATR stop54.9
GRDN43.99172.91297606.44GTC ATR stop55.5
INSW108.7369.92167602.58GTC ATR stop73.0
BGC12.43609.74747579.16GTC ATR stop52.1
TNK99.1076.55717586.81GTC ATR stop64.2
RBLX51.28148.29957604.80GTC ATR stop38.1
SPCX152.4449.61347563.22GTC ATR stop52.9

Macro environment

VIX
15.44
10Y−2Y
+0.25
HY OAS
2.70
Unemployment
4.1
SPY 20d
-0.91%

Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 15.4 — barely 0.97% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.25, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.70 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is -0.9%, the trend I am actually trading against.

Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:

$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$

Source: fred · as of 2026-09-20

Per-position evidence

#1 SMTC SMTC Semiconductors Composite 65.2 / 100

Filled at 176.68 for 43.1137 shares ($7617.16).

SMTC price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum60.8
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment69.2
Technical60.9
Fundamental65.6
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite65.2—
Universe percentile99

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

SMTC selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 65.2/100
#2 NTSK NTSK Technology Composite 69.1 / 100

Filled at 18.14 for 419.5265 shares ($7610.21).

NTSK price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum60.6
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment58.6
Technical65.3
Fundamental59.6
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite69.1—
Universe percentile96

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/B28.50 P/S8.47
ROEn/a ROA-53.0
Net marginn/a Rev growthn/a
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growthn/a
NTSK selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 69.1/100
#3 PURR PURR Biotechnology Composite 54.9 / 100

Filled at 13.73 for 551.2709 shares ($7568.95).

PURR price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum54.1
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment62.0
Technical80.1
Fundamental37.0
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite54.9—
Universe percentile91

Technicals (2026-09-18)

RSI(14)68.8 ADX(14)42.6
MACD1.025 Signal1.011
MACD hist0.014 ATR(14)1.15
SMA 2011.84 SMA 508.91
SMA 200n/a Vol ratio1.25
Boll upper13.46 Boll lower10.22
CCI(20)240.9 MFI(14)50.7
PURR selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 54.9/100
#4 GRDN GRDN Health Care Composite 55.5 / 100

Filled at 43.99 for 172.9129 shares ($7606.44).

GRDN price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum58.7
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment50.0n/a
Technical67.9
Fundamental73.8
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite55.5—
Universe percentile89

Technicals (2026-09-18)

RSI(14)62.8 ADX(14)30.8
MACD1.815 Signal1.232
MACD hist0.583 ATR(14)1.51
SMA 2041.27 SMA 5040.50
SMA 20036.51 Vol ratio1.00
Boll upper48.55 Boll lower33.99
CCI(20)76.6 MFI(14)74.2

Sentiment & news

No sentiment or news collected yet.

Fundamentals

P/E56.2 PEGn/a
P/B9.26 P/S1.91
ROE30.8 ROA15.8
Net marginn/a Rev growth10.3
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth10.9
GRDN selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 55.5/100
#6 INSW INSW Energy Composite 73.0 / 100

Filled at 108.73 for 69.9216 shares ($7602.58).

INSW price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum56.6
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment54.3
Technical64.6
Fundamental59.1
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite73.0—
Universe percentile81

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

INSW selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 73.0/100
#7 BGC BGC Financial Services Composite 52.1 / 100

Filled at 12.43 for 609.7474 shares ($7579.16).

BGC price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum41.0
Catalyst60.5
Sentiment82.7
Technical64.3
Fundamental66.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite52.1—
Universe percentile71

Technicals (2026-09-18)

RSI(14)58.5 ADX(14)11.3
MACD0.208 Signal0.228
MACD hist-0.021 ATR(14)0.35
SMA 2012.06 SMA 5011.53
SMA 20010.16 Vol ratio2.49
Boll upper12.32 Boll lower11.79
CCI(20)65.6 MFI(14)59.8

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/Bn/a P/Sn/a
ROE0.1 ROA0.0
Net margin0.1 Rev growth0.3
Debt/Equity1.60 EPS growth0.2
BGC selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 52.1/100
#8 TNK TNK Energy Composite 64.2 / 100

Filled at 99.10 for 76.5571 shares ($7586.81).

TNK price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum57.1
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment57.2
Technical73.2
Fundamental41.1
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite64.2—
Universe percentile69

Technicals (2026-09-11)

RSI(14)73.8 ADX(14)24.5
MACD4.459 Signal3.795
MACD hist0.664 ATR(14)2.91
SMA 2090.98 SMA 5081.25
SMA 20071.54 Vol ratio2.01
Boll upper98.91 Boll lower83.05
CCI(20)224.2 MFI(14)67.6

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/Bn/a P/Sn/a
ROE0.2 ROA0.2
Net margin0.4 Rev growth-0.2
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth-0.1
TNK selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 64.2/100
#9 RBLX RBLX Media Composite 38.1 / 100

Filled at 51.28 for 148.2995 shares ($7604.80).

RBLX price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum57.8
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment68.6
Technical59.1
Fundamental35.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite38.1—
Universe percentile56

Technicals (2026-09-18)

RSI(14)61.7 ADX(14)27.3
MACD1.879 Signal1.062
MACD hist0.816 ATR(14)2.25
SMA 2043.12 SMA 5043.89
SMA 20057.81 Vol ratio1.02
Boll upper51.37 Boll lower34.87
CCI(20)81.4 MFI(14)64.4
RBLX selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 38.1/100
#10 SPCX SPCX Telecommunication Composite 52.9 / 100

Filled at 152.44 for 49.6134 shares ($7563.22).

SPCX price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum45.0
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment55.7
Technical71.5
Fundamental45.7
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite52.9—
Universe percentile34

Technicals (2026-09-18)

RSI(14)58.1 ADX(14)24.1
MACD4.146 Signal3.727
MACD hist0.420 ATR(14)7.41
SMA 20145.33 SMA 50134.64
SMA 200n/a Vol ratio2.53
Boll upper156.82 Boll lower133.84
CCI(20)105.0 MFI(14)61.1

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/B17.67 P/S110.98
ROEn/a ROAn/a
Net marginn/a Rev growthn/a
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growthn/a
SPCX selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 52.9/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.