← All research
Execution · Buys

Trade Execution — Buys PAPER TRADING

9 positions opened · week of September 14, 2026
Redacted — proprietary method withheld. The space is kept so you can see where detail exists.

Execution summary

I filled 9 market orders at Monday's open for the week of September 14, 2026. I show the ATR-scaled stop and the conviction I carried in; the position weightings stay proprietary.

TickerFillSharesValue $StopCompositeExp. return
SMTC0.000.00007600.93GTC ATR stop69.6
CRGY0.000.00007543.61GTC ATR stop59.2
HAFN0.000.00007652.10GTC ATR stop57.7
AVT0.000.00007582.86GTC ATR stop59.5
AVAH0.000.00007724.67GTC ATR stop65.6
GRDN0.000.00007609.49GTC ATR stop55.7
ADM0.000.00007727.82GTC ATR stop55.1
SPCX0.000.00007584.49GTC ATR stop49.9
SLDE25.60294.07427528.30GTC ATR stop57.9

Macro environment

VIX
17.84
10Y−2Y
+0.33
HY OAS
2.70
Unemployment
4.1
SPY 20d
-1.82%

Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 17.8 — barely 1.12% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.33, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.70 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is -1.8%, the trend I am actually trading against.

Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:

$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$

Source: fred · as of 2026-09-13

Per-position evidence

#1 SMTC SMTC Semiconductors Composite 69.6 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7600.93).

SMTC price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum64.2
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment78.3
Technical81.1
Fundamental59.6
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite69.6—
Universe percentile99

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

SMTC selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 69.6/100
#2 CRGY CRGY Energy Composite 59.2 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7543.61).

CRGY price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum48.2
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment80.2
Technical62.1
Fundamental61.2
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite59.2—
Universe percentile96

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/E36.4 PEGn/a
P/B0.53 P/S1.35
ROE1.1 ROA0.5
Net marginn/a Rev growth24.2
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth-1.8
CRGY selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 59.2/100
#3 HAFN HAFN Energy Composite 57.7 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7652.10).

HAFN price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum58.6
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment50.2
Technical58.2
Fundamental75.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite57.7—
Universe percentile94

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/E7.2 PEGn/a
P/B1.77 P/S1.76
ROE0.3 ROA0.1
Net margin0.2 Rev growth0.5
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth2.7
HAFN selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 57.7/100
#4 AVT AVT Electrical Equipment Composite 59.5 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7582.86).

AVT price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum42.3
Catalyst80.0
Sentiment68.8
Technical77.7
Fundamental67.9
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite59.5—
Universe percentile89

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/E24.5 PEGn/a
P/B1.43 P/S0.30
ROE6.8 ROA2.5
Net marginn/a Rev growth24.5
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth46.1
AVT selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 59.5/100
#5 AVAH AVAH Health Care Composite 65.6 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7724.67).

AVAH price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum53.1
Catalyst80.0
Sentiment65.9
Technical67.7
Fundamental75.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite65.6—
Universe percentile86

Technicals (2026-09-11)

RSI(14)72.3 ADX(14)33.7
MACD0.952 Signal1.005
MACD hist-0.053 ATR(14)0.54
SMA 2013.16 SMA 5010.95
SMA 2008.48 Vol ratio0.53
Boll upper15.39 Boll lower10.94
CCI(20)94.9 MFI(14)71.7

Fundamentals

P/E13.7 PEGn/a
P/B8.80 P/S1.26
ROE149.8 ROA13.8
Net marginn/a Rev growth19.5
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth1377.0
AVAH selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 65.6/100
#7 GRDN GRDN Health Care Composite 55.7 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7609.49).

GRDN price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum58.8
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment50.0n/a
Technical72.7
Fundamental54.6
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite55.7—
Universe percentile79

Technicals (2026-09-11)

RSI(14)71.2 ADX(14)21.5
MACD0.949 Signal0.165
MACD hist0.785 ATR(14)1.26
SMA 2039.23 SMA 5039.97
SMA 20036.08 Vol ratio2.20
Boll upper43.86 Boll lower34.61
CCI(20)177.4 MFI(14)83.0

Sentiment & news

No sentiment or news collected yet.

Fundamentals

P/E56.2 PEGn/a
P/B9.26 P/S1.91
ROE30.8 ROA15.8
Net marginn/a Rev growth10.3
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth10.9
GRDN selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 55.7/100
#8 ADM ADM Food Products Composite 55.1 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7727.82).

ADM price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum39.4
Catalyst80.0
Sentiment51.8
Technical59.4
Fundamental61.2
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite55.1—
Universe percentile61

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

ADM selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 55.1/100
#9 SPCX SPCX Telecommunication Composite 49.9 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7584.49).

SPCX price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum49.6
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment53.6
Technical70.7
Fundamental45.7
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite49.9—
Universe percentile54

Technicals (2026-09-11)

RSI(14)59.2 ADX(14)20.7
MACD4.193 Signal3.307
MACD hist0.886 ATR(14)7.73
SMA 20142.97 SMA 50135.08
SMA 200n/a Vol ratio0.76
Boll upper153.53 Boll lower132.41
CCI(20)109.1 MFI(14)83.7

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/Bn/a P/Sn/a
ROEn/a ROAn/a
Net marginn/a Rev growthn/a
Debt/Equity0.30 EPS growthn/a
SPCX selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 49.9/100
#10 SLDE SLDE Insurance Composite 57.9 / 100

Filled at 25.60 for 294.0742 shares ($7528.30).

SLDE price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum42.2
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment63.6
Technical61.5
Fundamental82.1
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite57.9—
Universe percentile51

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

SLDE selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 57.9/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.