These are the 10 names I am backing for the week of August 03, 2026, and below each one I show my work: the momentum, the technicals, the sentiment, the fundamentals, and the macro I am leaning on. I do not ask you to take the picks on faith — I ask you to read the evidence and disagree if you can. The pillar weights and a few model internals stay redacted because they are the edge; everything that can be shown, is.
Macro environment
Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 17.1 — barely 1.08% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.47, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.84 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is +0.1%, the trend I am actually trading against.
Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:
$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$
Source: fred · as of 2026-08-02
How I make the call
I score every candidate from 0–100 on several independent pillars,
then collapse them into one composite. The weighting is the part I keep back,
but the structure is simple:
$$\text{Composite}(x) \;=\; \sum_i w_i \, S_i(x)$$
where \(S_i\) is a pillar score and \(w_i\) its weight. The exact pillar
weights are mine to keep, so they are withheld; what I will tell you is
that a neutral-pillar guard drops any pillar sitting at 50 (no signal) and
renormalises the rest, so a silent factor never dilutes a loud one.
For the expected weekly return I do not trust a raw historical average at a
given score — small samples lie. I shrink it toward a prior, blending the
realised returns of past names that scored nearby with that prior in proportion
to how much evidence I actually have:
$$\hat{r}(s) \;=\; \frac{n\,\bar r_{\text{near}} + k\,\pi(s)}{n + k}$$
Here \(k\) (the shrinkage strength) and the prior \(\pi\) take proprietary
values , and they are exactly what I re-estimate as new weeks land —
this is where the framework learns. The standard indicator formulas below I
show in full, because none of that is the edge.
Indicator formula reference
RSI: $$\mathrm{RSI}_{14}=100-\frac{100}{1+RS},\quad RS=\frac{\overline{\text{gain}}_{14}}{\overline{\text{loss}}_{14}}$$
MACD: $$\mathrm{MACD}=\mathrm{EMA}_{12}-\mathrm{EMA}_{26},\quad \text{signal}=\mathrm{EMA}_9(\mathrm{MACD})$$
ATR: $$\mathrm{ATR}_{14}=\tfrac{1}{14}\sum TR,\quad TR=\max\big(H-L,\,|H-C_{-1}|,\,|L-C_{-1}|\big)$$
Bollinger: $$\mathrm{BB}=\mathrm{SMA}_{20}\pm 2\,\sigma_{20}$$
Cross-sectional z: $$z=\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}$$
The picks
#1 INSW
INSW
Energy
Composite 64.2 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 50.7 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 88.5 | |
| Technical | 62.3 | |
| Fundamental | 59.1 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 64.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 99 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 15.4 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 1.19 |
P/S | 5.65 |
| ROE | 27.1 |
ROA | 20.1 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 14.5 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 69.8 |
INSW selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 64.2/100
#2 QTWO
QTWO
Technology
Composite 64.8 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 61.4 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 62.8 | |
| Technical | 76.1 | |
| Fundamental | 65.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 64.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 96 | |
Technicals (2026-07-31)
| RSI(14) | 69.7 |
ADX(14) | 29.0 |
| MACD | 2.908 |
Signal | 2.406 |
| MACD hist | 0.502 |
ATR(14) | 2.51 |
| SMA 20 | 55.00 |
SMA 50 | 49.53 |
| SMA 200 | 56.97 |
Vol ratio | 2.79 |
| Boll upper | 60.85 |
Boll lower | 49.14 |
| CCI(20) | 148.1 |
MFI(14) | 72.4 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.1 |
ROA | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
Rev growth | 0.1 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 2.2 |
QTWO selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 64.8/100
#3 ITRI
ITRI
Electrical Equipment
Composite 59.2 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 57.5 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 65.0 | |
| Technical | 74.9 | |
| Fundamental | 47.1 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 59.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 94 | |
Technicals (2026-07-31)
| RSI(14) | 67.1 |
ADX(14) | 25.2 |
| MACD | 3.988 |
Signal | 2.146 |
| MACD hist | 1.842 |
ATR(14) | 3.96 |
| SMA 20 | 88.05 |
SMA 50 | 84.65 |
| SMA 200 | 94.61 |
Vol ratio | 0.92 |
| Boll upper | 102.40 |
Boll lower | 73.70 |
| CCI(20) | 144.6 |
MFI(14) | 63.6 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 14.5 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 2.48 |
P/S | 1.84 |
| ROE | 16.5 |
ROA | 7.1 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | -5.7 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 2.2 |
ITRI selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 59.2/100
#4 DK
DK
Energy
Composite 60.2 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 50.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 78.7 | |
| Technical | 50.1 | |
| Fundamental | 54.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 60.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 91 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | -0.0 |
ROA | -0.0 |
| Net margin | -0.0 |
Rev growth | -0.1 |
| Debt/Equity | 1.62 |
EPS growth | 1.0 |
DK selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 60.2/100
#5 DXCM
DXCM
Health Care
Composite 60.1 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 54.3 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 64.8 | |
| Technical | 58.9 | |
| Fundamental | 65.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 60.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 89 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 38.5 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 9.43 |
P/S | 6.91 |
| ROE | 33.8 |
ROA | 13.4 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 16.1 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 77.5 |
DXCM selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 60.1/100
#6 AMC
AMC
Media
Composite 62.7 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 62.3 | |
| Catalyst | 74.0 | |
| Sentiment | 71.5 | |
| Technical | 76.8 | |
| Fundamental | 52.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 62.7 | — |
| Universe percentile | 86 | |
Technicals (2026-07-30)
| RSI(14) | 67.9 |
ADX(14) | 26.5 |
| MACD | 0.179 |
Signal | 0.105 |
| MACD hist | 0.073 |
ATR(14) | 0.22 |
| SMA 20 | 2.15 |
SMA 50 | 2.05 |
| SMA 200 | 1.80 |
Vol ratio | 0.66 |
| Boll upper | 2.79 |
Boll lower | 1.51 |
| CCI(20) | 142.4 |
MFI(14) | 65.1 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 0.62 |
P/S | 0.52 |
| ROE | -11.9 |
ROA | -7.0 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 6.4 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
AMC selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 62.7/100
#7 MANH
MANH
Technology
Composite 62.0 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 59.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 63.2 | |
| Technical | 60.8 | |
| Fundamental | 58.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 62.0 | — |
| Universe percentile | 84 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 1.4 |
ROA | 0.3 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
Rev growth | 0.0 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 0.0 |
MANH selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 62.0/100
#8 WHD
WHD
Energy
Composite 53.9 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 54.7 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 65.7 | |
| Technical | 64.0 | |
| Fundamental | 46.1 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 53.9 | — |
| Universe percentile | 81 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 31.9 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 2.97 |
P/S | 4.91 |
| ROE | 6.2 |
ROA | 3.6 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 4.5 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | -59.4 |
WHD selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 53.9/100
#9 LPG
LPG
Energy
Composite 59.1 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 53.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 52.2 | |
| Technical | 78.7 | |
| Fundamental | 73.8 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 59.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 79 | |
Technicals (2026-07-31)
| RSI(14) | 67.8 |
ADX(14) | 25.0 |
| MACD | 1.705 |
Signal | 1.207 |
| MACD hist | 0.498 |
ATR(14) | 1.63 |
| SMA 20 | 42.61 |
SMA 50 | 41.70 |
| SMA 200 | 33.62 |
Vol ratio | 0.99 |
| Boll upper | 48.00 |
Boll lower | 37.23 |
| CCI(20) | 121.8 |
MFI(14) | 80.6 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.2 |
ROA | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
Rev growth | 0.4 |
| Debt/Equity | 0.49 |
EPS growth | 1.1 |
LPG selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 59.1/100
#10 AMBA
AMBA
Semiconductors
Composite 56.2 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 52.7 | |
| Catalyst | 80.0 | |
| Sentiment | 65.7 | |
| Technical | 82.6 | |
| Fundamental | 37.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 56.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 76 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 4.55 |
P/S | 9.66 |
| ROE | -11.8 |
ROA | -9.1 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 28.1 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
AMBA selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 56.2/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.
