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Execution · Buys

Trade Execution — Buys PAPER TRADING

10 positions opened · week of July 20, 2026
Redacted — proprietary method withheld. The space is kept so you can see where detail exists.

Execution summary

I filled 10 market orders at Monday's open for the week of July 20, 2026. I show the ATR-scaled stop and the conviction I carried in; the position weightings stay proprietary.

TickerFillSharesValue $StopCompositeExp. return
BLLN0.000.00007958.12GTC ATR stop63.9
ORKA0.000.00007958.12GTC ATR stop69.4
FRSH0.000.00007958.12GTC ATR stop59.9
ADPT0.000.00007958.12GTC ATR stop56.0
SN0.000.00007958.12GTC ATR stop65.2
CB352.4722.57817958.11GTC ATR stop57.5
BWIN0.000.00007958.12GTC ATR stop52.1
EAT0.000.00007958.12GTC ATR stop64.5
ABBV0.000.00007958.12GTC ATR stop69.1
MBX62.539.0000562.77GTC ATR stop34.7

Macro environment

VIX
16.73
10Y−2Y
+0.37
HY OAS
2.71
Unemployment
4.2
SPY 20d
+0.51%

Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 16.7 — barely 1.05% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.37, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.71 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is +0.5%, the trend I am actually trading against.

Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:

$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$

Source: fred · as of 2026-07-19

Per-position evidence

#1 BLLN BLLN Health Care Composite 63.9 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).

BLLN price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum59.5
Catalyst73.3
Sentiment68.5
Technical75.6
Fundamental61.3
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemblen/a
Composite63.9
Universe percentile98

Technicals (2026-06-15)

RSI(14)59.6 ADX(14)20.1
MACD4.249 Signal3.759
MACD hist0.490 ATR(14)6.67
SMA 2094.07 SMA 5088.21
SMA 200n/a Vol ratio1.46
Boll upper108.23 Boll lower79.90
CCI(20)90.2 MFI(14)61.5
BLLN selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 63.9/100
#2 ORKA ORKA Biotechnology Composite 69.4 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).

ORKA price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum66.3
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment54.6
Technical79.9
Fundamental36.9
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite69.4
Universe percentile95

Technicals (2026-06-17)

RSI(14)62.1 ADX(14)23.3
MACD2.137 Signal0.987
MACD hist1.150 ATR(14)3.69
SMA 2062.21 SMA 5064.44
SMA 20038.41 Vol ratio0.70
Boll upper72.06 Boll lower52.37
CCI(20)125.7 MFI(14)57.1

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/B3.11 P/S119.31
ROE-26.0 ROA-25.0
Net marginn/a Rev growthn/a
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growthn/a
ORKA selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 69.4/100
#3 FRSH FRSH Technology Composite 59.9 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).

FRSH price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum49.3
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment62.9
Technical60.6
Fundamental70.3
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemblen/a
Composite59.9
Universe percentile92

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/Bn/a P/Sn/a
ROE0.2 ROA0.1
Net margin0.2 Rev growth0.2
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth3.0
FRSH selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 59.9/100
#4 ADPT ADPT Life Sciences Tools & Services Composite 56.0 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).

ADPT price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum61.3
Catalyst80.0
Sentiment57.3
Technical61.5
Fundamental46.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemblen/a
Composite56.0
Universe percentile88

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/B11.33 P/S13.24
ROE-24.3 ROA-9.9
Net marginn/a Rev growth55.9
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growthn/a
ADPT selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 56.0/100
#5 SN SN Consumer products Composite 65.2 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).

SN price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum49.0
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment62.1
Technical60.2
Fundamental65.6
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite65.2
Universe percentile85

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/E31.2 PEGn/a
P/B5.90 P/S3.42
ROE28.1 ROA14.2
Net marginn/a Rev growth15.9
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth56.6
SN selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 65.2/100
#6 CB CB Insurance Composite 57.5 / 100

Filled at 352.47 for 22.5781 shares ($7958.11).

CB price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum38.4
Catalyst68.0
Sentiment68.4
Technical59.7
Fundamental70.2
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemblen/a
Composite57.5
Universe percentile82

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

CB selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 57.5/100
#7 BWIN BWIN Insurance Composite 52.1 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).

BWIN price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum52.9
Catalyst51.1
Sentiment50.0n/a
Technical57.9
Fundamental49.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemblen/a
Composite52.1
Universe percentile78

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Sentiment & news

No sentiment or news collected yet.

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/B4.75 P/S2.58
ROE-6.5 ROA-1.1
Net marginn/a Rev growth14.2
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growthn/a
BWIN selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 52.1/100
#8 EAT EAT Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Composite 64.5 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).

EAT price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum50.9
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment58.6
Technical60.7
Fundamental50.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite64.5
Universe percentile75

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/E21.2 PEGn/a
P/B21.17 P/S1.51
ROE123.4 ROA17.0
Net marginn/a Rev growth104.4
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth99.3
EAT selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 64.5/100
#9 ABBV ABBV Biotechnology Composite 69.1 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).

ABBV price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum42.0
Catalyst62.0
Sentiment62.4
Technical71.0
Fundamental54.7
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite69.1
Universe percentile72

Technicals (2026-06-12)

RSI(14)65.8 ADX(14)20.8
MACD4.505 Signal3.671
MACD hist0.834 ATR(14)5.03
SMA 20218.22 SMA 50210.80
SMA 200220.35 Vol ratio0.69
Boll upper229.65 Boll lower206.80
CCI(20)113.5 MFI(14)65.2

Fundamentals

P/E106.4 PEGn/a
P/B94.44 P/S7.35
ROE95.6 ROA2.7
Net marginn/a Rev growth9.5
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth-13.5
ABBV selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 69.1/100
#10 MBX MBX Pharmaceuticals Composite 34.7 / 100

Filled at 62.53 for 9.0000 shares ($562.77).

MBX price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum62.8
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment50.0n/a
Technical63.5
Fundamental45.7
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite34.7
Universe percentile68

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Sentiment & news

No sentiment or news collected yet.

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/B3.84 P/Sn/a
ROE-24.5 ROA-23.6
Net marginn/a Rev growthn/a
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growthn/a
MBX selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 34.7/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.