Macro environment
Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 16.7 — barely 1.05% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.37, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.71 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is +0.5%, the trend I am actually trading against.
Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:
$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$
Source: fred · as of 2026-07-19
Per-position evidence
#1 BLLN
BLLN
Health Care
Composite 63.9 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 59.5 | |
| Catalyst | 73.3 | |
| Sentiment | 68.5 | |
| Technical | 75.6 | |
| Fundamental | 61.3 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | n/a |
| Composite | 63.9 | — |
| Universe percentile | 98 | |
Technicals (2026-06-15)
| RSI(14) | 59.6 |
ADX(14) | 20.1 |
| MACD | 4.249 |
Signal | 3.759 |
| MACD hist | 0.490 |
ATR(14) | 6.67 |
| SMA 20 | 94.07 |
SMA 50 | 88.21 |
| SMA 200 | n/a |
Vol ratio | 1.46 |
| Boll upper | 108.23 |
Boll lower | 79.90 |
| CCI(20) | 90.2 |
MFI(14) | 61.5 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 782.2 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 7.80 |
P/S | 19.11 |
| ROE | 7.6 |
ROA | 5.2 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | n/a |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
BLLN selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 63.9/100
#2 ORKA
ORKA
Biotechnology
Composite 69.4 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 66.3 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 54.6 | |
| Technical | 79.9 | |
| Fundamental | 36.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 69.4 | — |
| Universe percentile | 95 | |
Technicals (2026-06-17)
| RSI(14) | 62.1 |
ADX(14) | 23.3 |
| MACD | 2.137 |
Signal | 0.987 |
| MACD hist | 1.150 |
ATR(14) | 3.69 |
| SMA 20 | 62.21 |
SMA 50 | 64.44 |
| SMA 200 | 38.41 |
Vol ratio | 0.70 |
| Boll upper | 72.06 |
Boll lower | 52.37 |
| CCI(20) | 125.7 |
MFI(14) | 57.1 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 3.11 |
P/S | 119.31 |
| ROE | -26.0 |
ROA | -25.0 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | n/a |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
ORKA selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 69.4/100
#3 FRSH
FRSH
Technology
Composite 59.9 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 49.3 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 62.9 | |
| Technical | 60.6 | |
| Fundamental | 70.3 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | n/a |
| Composite | 59.9 | — |
| Universe percentile | 92 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.2 |
ROA | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
Rev growth | 0.2 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 3.0 |
FRSH selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 59.9/100
#4 ADPT
ADPT
Life Sciences Tools & Services
Composite 56.0 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 61.3 | |
| Catalyst | 80.0 | |
| Sentiment | 57.3 | |
| Technical | 61.5 | |
| Fundamental | 46.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | n/a |
| Composite | 56.0 | — |
| Universe percentile | 88 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 11.33 |
P/S | 13.24 |
| ROE | -24.3 |
ROA | -9.9 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 55.9 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
ADPT selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 56.0/100
#5 SN
SN
Consumer products
Composite 65.2 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 49.0 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 62.1 | |
| Technical | 60.2 | |
| Fundamental | 65.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 65.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 85 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 31.2 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 5.90 |
P/S | 3.42 |
| ROE | 28.1 |
ROA | 14.2 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 15.9 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 56.6 |
SN selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 65.2/100
#6 CB
CB
Insurance
Composite 57.5 / 100
Filled at 352.47 for 22.5781 shares ($7958.11).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 38.4 | |
| Catalyst | 68.0 | |
| Sentiment | 68.4 | |
| Technical | 59.7 | |
| Fundamental | 70.2 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | n/a |
| Composite | 57.5 | — |
| Universe percentile | 82 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 13.2 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 1.67 |
P/S | 2.30 |
| ROE | 15.7 |
ROA | 4.2 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 8.2 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 36.3 |
CB selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 57.5/100
#7 BWIN
BWIN
Insurance
Composite 52.1 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 52.9 | |
| Catalyst | 51.1 | |
| Sentiment | 50.0 | n/a |
| Technical | 57.9 | |
| Fundamental | 49.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | n/a |
| Composite | 52.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 78 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Sentiment & news
No sentiment or news collected yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 4.75 |
P/S | 2.58 |
| ROE | -6.5 |
ROA | -1.1 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 14.2 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
BWIN selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 52.1/100
#8 EAT
EAT
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Composite 64.5 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 50.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 58.6 | |
| Technical | 60.7 | |
| Fundamental | 50.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 64.5 | — |
| Universe percentile | 75 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 21.2 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 21.17 |
P/S | 1.51 |
| ROE | 123.4 |
ROA | 17.0 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 104.4 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 99.3 |
EAT selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 64.5/100
#9 ABBV
ABBV
Biotechnology
Composite 69.1 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7958.12).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 42.0 | |
| Catalyst | 62.0 | |
| Sentiment | 62.4 | |
| Technical | 71.0 | |
| Fundamental | 54.7 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 69.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 72 | |
Technicals (2026-06-12)
| RSI(14) | 65.8 |
ADX(14) | 20.8 |
| MACD | 4.505 |
Signal | 3.671 |
| MACD hist | 0.834 |
ATR(14) | 5.03 |
| SMA 20 | 218.22 |
SMA 50 | 210.80 |
| SMA 200 | 220.35 |
Vol ratio | 0.69 |
| Boll upper | 229.65 |
Boll lower | 206.80 |
| CCI(20) | 113.5 |
MFI(14) | 65.2 |
Sentiment & news
| Combined sentiment | -0.14 |
Momentum (WoW) | n/a |
| News (pos/neg) | 0/2 |
Social posts | 2 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 106.4 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 94.44 |
P/S | 7.35 |
| ROE | 95.6 |
ROA | 2.7 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 9.5 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | -13.5 |
ABBV selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 69.1/100
#10 MBX
MBX
Pharmaceuticals
Composite 34.7 / 100
Filled at 62.53 for 9.0000 shares ($562.77).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 62.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 50.0 | n/a |
| Technical | 63.5 | |
| Fundamental | 45.7 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 34.7 | — |
| Universe percentile | 68 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Sentiment & news
No sentiment or news collected yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 3.84 |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | -24.5 |
ROA | -23.6 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | n/a |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
MBX selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 34.7/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.